In which I vent, thoroughly.
My brother comes home from work sometimes, frustrated by interminable theological conversations with a co-worker. The only advice I can ever really give him is that he shouldn’t engage a religious person – especially a conservative Christian – in a scientific debate, because it never ends well.
And yet, despite the frequency with which I offer that advice, I fell into the same trap this weekend. I’m not sure how it happened; the conversation was going smoothly until things turned to evolution. A friend (let’s call him Staniel) asserted that evolution is a mere unverified hypothesis, a story outside the realm of science. Science, according to Staniel, is only concerned with measuring velocities and counting pigeons. Everything else is speculation.
Now, I’m fine with people believing what they want to believe. I have no reason to change the things people hold dear, and I’d just exhaust myself if I tried. I just can’t touch faith. It’s a personal matter, and untouchable. But when they deny evidence, reason, and reality, when they misrepresent science, when they use any reason other than pure faith to justify mistaken beliefs, well. That’s when I get going.
Here’s where I vent. If you know where this is headed, you’re excused.
At the core of Staniel’s argument against evolution is the assumption that events before recorded history weren’t, um, recorded, and are therefore speculation. Any event, whether the evolution of species or the origin of the Earth, is either directly observable or it falls outside the scope of human knowledge. The assumption is both ridiculous and illogical.
The standard model of cosmology posits that the Universe is about 13.75 billion years old (give or take), so let’s start there and narrow things down. 13.75 billion years is literally an inconceivable span of time. For a creature who can only expect to live about eighty years, even a million years is impossible to grasp. I’ve talked about this before, and I’ll be talking about it a lot more in future posts. A billion is an outrageous amount of anything.
It’s tough to understand the difference between a million and a billion. It’s only three extra zeroes, after all. It’s insufficient to compare it to the difference between one and 1,000 – although the ratio is the same. 1000 is a conceivable number. We can imagine a thousand of something. Really, we can even imagine a million of something, if we try. We have enough references that thousands and millions are accessible to us. But billions… That’s something else entirely.
Let’s take a few seconds to think about this. Don’t worry; at less than 17 minutes, we won’t even spend 1,000 seconds on this paragraph. A million seconds, on the other hand, 1,000 thousand seconds – that’s twelve days. You can plan a weekend getaway that far in advance. A thousand million seconds later, though, and you’ll be planning your retirement. A billion seconds is almost 32 years. Adding three little zeroes can mean a huge difference, even if the word “billion” doesn’t seem very intimidating by itself.
So I can forgive Staniel his disbelief of the enormity of time. 13.75 billion years is not something we can understand quickly or easily. However, what I cannot forgive is his assertion that because we can’t directly observe 13.75 billion years in action, they must not have happened.
And it was at this point in the conversation that I found myself in the unfortunate position of trying to explain the concept of science while using scientific principles to invalidate nonscientific principles. I find that the highly religious tend not to be impressed by the sublime beauty of scientific discovery, nor the methodologies behind it. At the risk of overgeneralizing, they seem to have a sense that it’s okay to believe whatever you want, and that automatically validates any assertion we make.
That’s wrong.
See, in science, there is no “right” and “wrong.” There is only supported or unsupported by evidence. Hypotheses that fail to gather evidence are rejected by scientists – and nobody is more eager to discredit a long-standing scientific hypothesis than another scientist. Science is vigorously self-critical; that’s what makes it successful. It can only succeed, really, when able minds seek flaws in it. To use the limitations of current scientific knowledge or to describe how science has been wrong in the past to “score a point” against science is both pointless and meaningless.
So no, we don’t “know” that the universe is 13.75 billion years old the way that we “know” whether we’re sitting in a chair or not. But 13.75 billion years is not a magic figure that scientists made up and have been conspiring to force upon us ever since. It may not even be correct. But for now, it’s the best estimate we have calculated, and it’s a number that has been independently substantiated time and again. However, physicists and astronomers are constantly reworking the data and making adjustments.
The scientist who can demonstrate with unimpeachable evidence that the universe is greatly younger or older than 13.75 billion years will have made his or her career. No creationist is as eager to amend scientific thinking as a rigorous scientist. However, as data accumulates, the likelihood that a gaping discrepancy will be discovered grows slimmer and slimmer.
Still, for the sake of argument, let’s move on to the age of the Earth, a deal breaker for sure. Staniel offered his conviction that our only method for measuring the age of the Earth, radiocarbon dating, has resulted in measurements no older than a few thousand years. While it’s true that carbon-14 dating is useless for objects older than around 60,000 years, it’s definitely untrue that carbon-14 is the only method of radiometric dating scientists use.
Staniel alleges that we have only speculation, but in fact we have a great deal of evidence from independent lines, including the study of uranium-rich meteorites and the chemical composition of rocks found on Earth. Again, we don’t “know” the age of the Earth the way we “know” our own birthday. But we do have an ever-increasing and ever more precise body of evidence that establishes a rough age of 4.5 billion years.
4.5 billion is another incredibly large number. If a billion seconds is 32 years, 4.5 billion seconds is 144 years. 144 years ago, we were reeling from a disastrous Civil War. 4.5 billion years, then, is a really long time. Again, I can forgive Staniel for his inability to handle this number. But I can’t forgive his assertion that because nobody was there 4.5 billion years ago it’s just a story scientists tell their kids, and the 6,000 years of the Biblical account is equally valid.
See, throughout the entire conversation, the core of Staniel’s arguments was “But you can’t observe _________, so it’s only speculation.” Which is a disturbing but common argument among the scientifically illiterate. It’s related to the “it’s only a theory” deception. Staniel got annoyed when I spent most of the conversation explaining what constitutes a scientific theory, rather than laboriously picking through each of his flawed assumptions, but he fell into the trap of using words that sound “science-y” without understanding any of the meaning behind it.
Theory does not mean “Any possible explanation regardless of evidence.”
Which is why the story of Noah’s flood is a story, and not a theory. It is not a scientifically-valid theory because it does not match with any currently-accepted models of geology, meteorology, hydrology, or physics, nor does it match the global historical or archaeological record. We have very strong evidence for many flood events, but sorry, there were no global floods.
To which Staniel replied, “But absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Which means that if I don’t keep an open mind regarding fictional floods, I’m a narrow-minded goon who with blind faith accepts Science as the almighty, impenetrable truth. Weird, because that’s kind of how bible literalists come off. If absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence, where is Staniel’s open mind regarding, say, a Big Bang that we “can’t directly observe” despite overwhelming evidence that there was in fact a Big Bang?
But never mind all that. The Big Bang wasn’t always a part of the standard model of cosmology, so let’s stay on Earth for a little while longer. Staniel again accused me of changing the subject to confuse the debate and thwart his logical refutation of science, so I asked him to provide one fact that dislodged the evidence for a 4.5 billion year old Earth.
If you want to play the game, I’ll play along, but I promise you won’t enjoy it.
He offered that given the Sun’s shrinking diameter – it’s losing about 5 feet of its diameter every hour – it would have eaten the Earth alive 20 million years ago. I guess it’s okay that nobody ever took a measuring tape to the Sun, rendering its diameter unobservable, and therefore mere speculation. Nevertheless, I’ll treat the fact in the spirit in which it was offered – as scientific. However, there is no science that substantiates this claim. The sun’s diameter does indeed shrink in a very small way with time, but it also expands with time. The same is true of the Earth itself, although to a much smaller degree.
On Earth and on the Sun, convection and gravitational forces play a role. The Sun, however, gobbles through millions and millions of tons of matter; its massive gravity sucks matter from the surface to the core, where pressure builds to the point that nuclear fusion happens. This fusion creates enormous amounts of energy, which travels back to the surface and gets ejected as the light and heat that we require to exist. So, in a sense, the Sun does lose mass over time; it should get smaller.
It’s never that simple. The amount of matter the Sun loses to nuclear forces is negligible compared to its mass. 20 million years ago it was pretty much as big as it is now. 20 million years is nothing on an astronomical scale. You could stack up 250 sets of 20 million years before the Sun begins to grow into a red giant star. 5 billion years in the future, Earth’s orbit will be in very serious jeopardy.
Of course, Staniel insists that since we’ve never observed any star from birth to death we have only speculation based on the current state of all the known stars. It’s true that we have only the current state of all known stars, but we know a lot of stars. As I said above, the limits of the body of scientific knowledge do not imply that “science” is useless and that all other stories have equal weight in a debate. Science is a method. It is a way for us to weed out bad information from good. It is a way for us to find the likeliest solution to the questions we have.
It was at this point in the conversation that Staniel excused himself from the conversation, because he can’t be squabbling with me all day. It is frustrating that the conversation ended with him feeling smugly that I am the close-minded one because I refuse to accept every story that comes my way. Stories are wonderful, don’t get me wrong. I love stories, and I appreciate them as fiction. You can even learn a lot from them. The Harry Potter series provides some great role models, but I’m not going to hang on every word Dumbledore utters.
Fiction is fiction, and it doesn’t matter how old it is or how inspiring you find it. The epic of Gilgamesh does not provide scientific evidence that immortality is possible. The Odyssey does not provide historical proof of the existence of cyclopean giants. Twilight does not prove that vampires sparkle.
I’m sure you’ll take me at my word when I say I could go on, but instead I’ll end it here: if the only scientifically-valid evidence is that which we can directly observe, where are the observations of a god? And if you say, “All around us,” I’ll probably punch you. The universe is an enormous, terrible, subtle place of beauty. To try to conceive of processes that happen over billions of years is mind-blowing. The reality is so much more beautiful than any ham-fisted attempt to sum it all up in one week of majestic conjuring.
There is popular (and clever) quote attributed to the poet Francis Thompson— “An atheist is a man who believes himself an accident.” But O, what a beautiful accident we are!
2012-01-26 Correction: I misattributed the above quote by Francis Thompson to Francis Watson. Freudian slip?? —J